Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 875.858737 994.172854 1127.512015 1289.898560 1483.643290 1709.059798 1993.613630
2025-01-26 727.626110 887.061705 1084.508509 1351.150188 1708.376089 2180.230006 2867.836787
2025-02-02 642.888845 818.724885 1049.644432 1383.028781 1865.899649 2563.331191 3694.151122
2025-02-09 580.758244 765.631710 1020.134389 1408.366810 2009.190566 2947.933618 4626.881198
2025-02-16 524.284153 710.304889 976.194289 1400.412747 2094.289782 3254.318819 5519.555705
2025-02-23 491.265999 682.955308 966.944801 1440.239774 2258.175484 3723.540150 6864.836535
2025-03-02 462.376622 657.564555 956.098754 1473.661979 2414.779002 4215.385990 8448.044421
2025-03-09 431.265072 625.025471 929.401097 1475.131442 2512.284322 4616.262800 10001.765161
2025-03-16 399.836571 588.688704 892.085161 1451.843353 2557.100214 4918.414941 11452.611535
2025-03-23 380.680900 570.031505 881.672313 1474.869737 2696.871617 5465.548603 13861.618712
2025-03-30 352.161034 533.498713 836.993221 1427.458581 2681.056003 5645.017894 15272.400254
2025-04-06 327.328289 501.170761 796.620481 1383.172573 2664.066627 5817.869596 16773.699518
2025-04-13 303.341841 469.536320 756.494517 1338.297416 2647.086284 6012.506770 18601.827399
2025-04-20 296.011029 466.081446 767.146593 1398.355834 2888.150378 7004.555355 24502.526362
2025-04-27 285.890752 456.720914 765.643499 1432.394639 3074.142736 7915.763184 31164.296843
2025-05-04 275.685696 446.310990 760.984536 1458.783011 3247.391211 8867.368721 39438.723327
2025-05-11 262.483962 429.400046 742.045690 1450.481298 3326.361142 9538.443145 47198.473703
2025-05-18 255.652987 423.711766 744.681890 1492.153065 3555.900139 10879.900629 62490.413843
2025-05-25 248.579166 416.990195 744.511778 1527.138401 3776.149666 12319.897505 82793.084253
2025-06-01 238.890296 404.564740 731.415425 1528.676708 3895.267592 13409.027497 103575.820831
2025-06-08 227.654138 388.409851 709.140813 1504.298434 3926.643603 14124.666519 123025.907811
2025-06-15 221.333532 381.461720 705.883313 1528.402737 4126.347372 15807.876865 165232.014661
2025-06-22 209.500506 362.876275 675.992691 1478.777620 4061.104209 16072.899680 185584.892982